Wise Words on the Housing Market

from Fools.

The guys @ Motley Fool are a pretty savvy group of stock market pundits. I’ve gotten a bit of good advice from them, or two bits…along the way. So when one of their writers had something to say on the state of the housing market ( which has wildly diverse advice and opinions) I thought it good to pass along your way:

From Lies, Danged Lies, and Housing Numbers
By Seth Jayson

What’s the alternate truth here? Compared to the November 2005 housing tally, the 2006 shows a 25.5% drop — and that’s subject only to a 5.8% margin of error, so you can bank on at least a 20%-ish pullback.

Foolish bottom line
There are a couple of lessons here, though they’re not new to anyone who’s read my thoughts on this industry. The first is this: You can’t trust the headlines on this space. Our nation has too much invested in the fairy tale of rapidly expanding housing “equity” to let go of it easily, and too many of the business reporters out there in the U.S. — or their outsourced, foreign-based doppelgangers — are simply churning out regurgitative fodder.

The truth is out there, but you need to dig, and think, to find it.

The second is this: Housing is still sick, and a lot of us think it will be a long time before it gets better. History shows that bubbles like ours don’t always “pop” in easily recognized — or even discernable — ways. If, and especially when, people tell you it’s safe to jump back into the water, remember the flood of houses still waiting to sell. Keep your hands on your wallets, Fools.